Readers may remember that last week, I posted my belief that "it should be possible to come up with a reliable formula to indicate what the chances of any PUG completing a particular instance or raid will be". This Holy Grail of scientific LOTRO studies is now within the grasp of serious students and analysts thanks to the efforts of my esteemed colleague, Master Belegwe, to whom we owe the following remarkable formula and its explanation:

- C - the chance of success, expressed as a percentage
- R - the relevance of rewards from a given instance expressed as a percentage of the proportion of the group the reward is relevant to
- P - the number of players present
- G - the gating requirement, expressed as an integer, with each piece of required equipment equalling 1
- D - the difficulty of the instance expressed as an integer from a scale I created (The Belegwe Scale) with values ranging from 1 to 4, 1 being the easiest and 4 being the most difficult
- A - the age of the instance expressed as an integer with each month (rounding to the nearest month) equalling 1
- P(al) - the average level of all the players present expressed as an integer
- I(l) - the level of the instance expressed as an integer
- P(n) - the number of players present who have never been to the instance before expressed as an integer
- P(e) - the number of players present who have been to the instance before expressed as an integer
- K - the Kairos constant with a value of 9.0171

- C- this remains the same as above
- X - the product of the first set of curved brackets
- Y - the product of the second set of curved brackets
- Z - the age of the instance expressed as an integer
- K - the Kairos Constant
- Alpha - the product of the New Player equation
- Beta - the product of the Experienced Player equation

## 5 comments:

I should point out that I came up with this equation in the small hours of the morning, whilst half asleep. I make no claim as to it's reliability. Use at your own risk!

The formula has been refined. Please see here: http://www.thewesternalliance.org/index.php?topic=4937.msg45262;topicseen#msg45262

Wow! A formula for a game. I think this post just took all of the fun out of the game. Seriously..... Where is Leroy Jenkins when you need him?

You realize this is a game right? What you just described is a job....

You realize this is a game right?To be honest, this post was meant to be tongue-in-cheek...

C=xi/y

C - chancw of detecting sarcasm/irony

x- 1

y - 1

i - 0 (the internet factor)

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