SKIRMISH POINTS: WHAT WILL THEY BE WORTH TOMORROW?

Every form of barter currency appearing to date in LOTRO has turned out to be, in effect, non-transferable. Vile Coins, Rift-iron Coins, Battered Annuminas Armour, Marks of Triumph... Remember those? All water under the bridge by now, or just rubbish cluttering up chests. Medallions of Moria and Medallions of Lothlórien, collected with so much effort, are worth little or nothing to players currently at l.65.

Will we see the same thing happening with skirmish points? A lot of people will be upset if it does. By the end-game, unless you spend them on upgrading your soldier, the only really valuable item you can barter for skirmish points is the Scroll of Empowerment, which costs 1,950 SP and will upgrade a LI legacy by one tier - but, at the moment, it only works on l.65 LIs. Now a lot of players, myself included, have already upgraded as many legacies as we care to on our current LIs, and are simply collecting SPs in view of the inevitable next upgrade, or even the eventual appearence of First-Age LIs. We are assuming (gambling, if you prefer), that Scrolls of Empowerment suitable for the next lot of LIs, whatever they turn out to be, will still be available in exchange for our accumulated SPs. Should this prove not to be the case, we will find ourselves in the same position as holders of Imperial Russian government bonds the day after the Bolsheviks seized power...

On the other hand, if skirmish points continue to be valuable after the next upgrade, albeit perhaps hit by inflation (i.e., scrolls may have doubled in price), LOTRO will have taken the first welcome steps towards the goal of a reliable,  long-term barter currency.

CHOKING THE ECONOMY

The LOTRO economy is currently in the equivalent of a deep recession, at least in the sense that economic activity is virtually frozen. Why? Because most l.65 players are awash with money, and have nothing to spend it on. The one single item that players might still be willing to shell out for is the Symbol of Celebrimbor, the essential ingredient for the forging of l.65 Second-Age items. It doesn't come up often in the AH, and when it does, the asking price ranges from 60G to 150G - though I seriously doubt that it actually sells for much over a hundred. However, the drop rate in Sammath Gul is said to be improving, and more to the point, given the depressingly limited shelf life of LIs, many people are beginning to wonder whether investing that kind of money in a weapon which will almost certainly be superannuated two months or so down the road is a smart move. LOTRO's economic czar has clearly screwed things up here, if the entire economic model is teetering, so to speak, upon the demand for one single product (and a rapidly crumbling demand, at that).

REVISE THOSE ESTIMATES!

Anybody rash enough to venture comment on matters financial should be prepared to eat their words, which is what I must do today. In my previous post, I said, referring to a l.60 Second Age Hunter's Bow on offer at the Laurelin AH that "just under 75G is way over the top for an unidentified item", gratuitously adding that 100G would most likely "represent both an actual and a psychological price ceiling" for some time to come.

Well, pride goeth before a fall. My conclusions held true for about 24 hours at best. Last night, with under two hours to go, that self-same bow reached a price of 140G, 175S, 98C - and for all I know, some lunatic may well have slipped in yet another bid at the last minute. This, remember, is for an unidentified item, which may well turn out to be an absolute lemon in terms of legacies.

It is small comfort to realise that I am not entirely alone in my mortification, since 99.9% percent of economic commentators in the real world have also had to eat their words in recent months...

PRICING LEGENDARIES

The price of top l.60 Second and First-Age legendaries is a matter of consuming interest to most advanced players, but the market is still extremely unsettled; sellers tend to be wildly optimistic, but buyers remain cautious. Apart from anything else, we still don't know enough about drop rates. The first image in this post, taken from the Laurelin AH, shows prices for three typical Second-Age legendaries (I am considering l.60s only; anything else is a stop-gap). The cheapest item is an identified Rune-Keeper' stone with five legacies, offered at an opening price of 15G with no offers as yet. In my opinion, this is far too expensive in view of the very limited demand for top-end RK and Warden equipment - after all, how many of these classes have reached l.60? Next is an unidentified Loremaster's staff, opening price 45G, buyout 70G - ridiculous on the face of it for an unidentified item, but a rich LM might just possibly take a flutter with a first bid. Finally, an unidentified Hunter's Bow, with no buyout and a current bid of 74.5G. This is the highest price I have yet seen offered for a Hunter Bow, and merely confirms the widely held belief that top-end Hunter gear continues to fetch the highest possible prices. I would argue that just under 75G is way over the top for an unidentified item (remember I acquired mine for 30G), but at least two Hunters disagree with me, and the market is king.

Turning now to Firs- Age items, which are beginning to appear on the AH with greater frequency, the first thing to strike one is the apparent preponderance of RK and Warden items. There could be two reasons for this: one is that the drop tables really are badly skewed in their favour, which would be bad news. The other, and more likely, is that if rolling for a First-Age item after a Watcher defeat is limited to players of the same class as the dropped item, then the great majority are hanging on to their prize. Whatever the reason, this does not make RK and Warden items with a 150G buyout very likely to move before hell freezes over; on the other hand, a first bid of 25G on the Warden's club, despite its poor legacies, is a distinct possibility. Finally, there is that Loremaster's Book offered for a first bid of 150G and a buyout of 180G, and once again no bids. This is a marginally more likely sale, but I somehow doubt it. My gut feeling, based on posts here and there on various forums, is that the small percentage of seriously wealthy players have savings which average around 100G, and that at least for some time to come, this sum will represent both an actual and a psychological price ceiling.

LATEST NEWS FROM MINES OF MORIA

Whether officially or unofficially, a number of interesting screen shots from the Mines of Moria beta have appeared on www.lotrolife.com. Things in beta are always subject to possible change, but nevertheless, some useful hard facts can be deduced from these images.

MOUNTS
Player mounts in MoM will be, yes, mountain goats. It can now be confirmed that not only will the game’s Pony Express service (sorry, Goat Express) be equipped with them, but it will be possible to purchase one as well, albeit after some considerable time. To acquire a Redhorn Goat you will have to have reached Friend Standing with the Iron Garrison Miners, while the faster Nimble Redhorn requires Kindred Standing (both going for 6G, 24S).

Incidentally, the enemy will have access to mounts as well – in their case, fighting mounts. Moria Warg-Riders are a formidable-looking skeleton-giant warg combo.

QUICK TRAVEL/PORTING
Hunters will continue to have an edge in the taxi profession in MoM, but once again, it may take some time to acquire the relevant skills. At l.56, for instance, Hunters can purchase the ability to “swiftly travel to the Twenty-First Hall of Moria”, taking a party with them. Wardens, on the other hand, can also acquire a corresponding skill at l.56, but can only travel solo.

THE ECONOMY
I have long suspected that in-game finance will suddenly become important again with MoM, partly simply through inflation, but also because the various procedures associated with identifying and manipulating legendary items may well incur (probably high) charges. Certainly the first assumption appears correct: Tomes necessary for the acquisition of various Traits appear to be on offer for 2G, 500S. Various other items on sale at faction shops appear to be priced up to twenty times higher than their current equivalents.

LOADING SCREENS
Judging by the example above, the MoM screens will be considerably better drawn than the weirdly distorted and downright ugly images we have put up with so far – think of the current Rivendell loading screen, with its dwarfish and club-handed Legolas.

http://www.lotrolife.com/news_full/new_mom_screenshots/294/

LOTRO ECONOMY UPDATE

The appearance of new content usually provokes rumbles in the LOTRO economy, and Book 14 has been no exception. One major new factor has been the ring lore quests - 70,000 of them per server before the gates to Eregion are opened. Each of the 70,000 quests is rewarded with a chest containing a item of some kind; these range from second-tier rep items all the way up to (or so rumour, or a single post on the Codemasters forum would suggest) a Helchgam's slime - one example of which was sold on the AH about a month ago for 20G. Don't hold your breath, though.

The vast majority of rewards are third-tier rep items, and this has definitely impacted on their price in the AH. Luistins (Lossoth rep items) which were selling for up to 475s in early July are now averaging 150s, and War Dispatches are down to around 300s from 450s. In general, the best-selling rep items are still those for the tougher or more useful factions, namely Lossoth, Council of the North and Elves of Rivendell, and while the price of these has all dropped, the demand is still there.

Interestingly, though Beryl Shards are now dropping (though not very often) from more mobs than before, the price of this perennial market indicator has remained surprisingly firm throughout July, and still averages about 750s. Exceptional Hides, most easily farmed in Forochel, are also maintaining their price, averaging about 400s for fifty.

Slightly more recipes seem to be dropping from mobs. Though down by about 25% on a couple of months ago, top prices can still be achieved by recipes for polished weapons and engraved beryl jewelery; recent examples were 1G, 500s for a Polished Ancient Steel Dagger recipe, and 2G, 100s for an Engraved Beryl Earring recipe. The new woodworking recipes and scholar's dye recipes are also in demand at the moment, but the market for the commoner recipes, including many that are single-use, has sagged badly.

LOTRO: HOME OF THE WHITE MICE?

It seems to me that a successful MMORPG represents, amongst other things, an almost perfect microeconomic model – and what’s more, one based on the responses and reactions of real people, rather than computer algorithms. All the elements of classic market economy theory are present: supply and demand, gluts and shortages, self-interest and a very moderate amount of altruism, love of novelty and brand loyalty - and of course, determined efforts to influence, manipulate or subvert the market…

This conceit is reinforced by the frequently violent fluctuations of LOTRO’s economy as expressed though Auction House prices. Among the reasons for such fluctuations are changes in the supply of specific goods as implemented by the designers (i.e., price control by the government) and the introduction of new and hence more desirable goods (i.e., innovation and marketing by manufacturers). At the moment we seem to be going through a mild depression, with prices for many goods set high while demand is falling. The current price for that perennial market indicator, the Beryl Shard, is floating just above 1 gold, up more than 40% from early January. Scarcity drives up prices, needless to say, but sometimes it does so to the point of also driving out buyers. Bits of the highly desirable Armour of the Aurochs set, for instance, which have the great market advantage of not being Bind on Acquire (BoA), are found almost exclusively in Helegrod – but as we know, Helegrod requires 24-man raids which are difficult to organise and, as far as the individual player is concerned, offer a very poor return on time invested. The result is that not many players bother to raid there, and Armour of the Aurochs pieces are correspondingly scarce; a Helm of the Aurochs may be the most expensive item on the Laurelin AH, offered at 70G with an 80G buy-out.

Not surprisingly, the current scarcity of top-quality single-use recipes has also driven up the price of the very best crafted weapons, armour and jewellery; Etched Beryl Necklaces average 5-6G, Etched Beryl Bracelets 12-14G and Etched Beryl Earrings 15-16G. On the other hand, the general disdain in which Annuminas armour is held by most players and the extreme difficulty of assembling complete sets (is anybody still bothering?) means that the market for Arnorian Armour Fragments and Battered Arnorian Armour has almost collapsed; current prices are as low as 10-20 silver for the former and about 300S for the latter, with no takers. Rift-Iron Coins are on offer for 400-500S each, again with no takers at that price – probably a reflection of the fact that there’s not much of value to buy with them. In general, it can be taken for granted that irrespective of what the developers intended, the price of poorly thought-out or unimpressive goods will quickly go though the floor – another perfect concordance with real-world economics.

Come to think of it, how do we know that LOTRO’s economy isn’t already being manipulated by economists from the Harvard Business School running arcane experiments? Maybe those infamous gold-farmers are really MBAs, and all of us are nothing more than white mice running through a sophisticated economics simulation. A chilling thought.